Fuel efficiency improvements and increased use of alternative fuels will shrink gasoline’s share of the liquid fuel market share by 14% through 2040, according to a new report released by the National Association of Convenience Stores (NACS). The 2014 NACS “Future of Fuels” report analyzes projections made by the U.S. Energy Information Administration in its Annual Energy Outlook 2014.
Liquid fuels—gasoline, diesel fuel, and E85, which can be made of up to 85% ethanol—are expected to remain the dominant energy sources for light-duty vehicles, and are projected to remain above 99% of the fuel market share in 2040, according to the report. At the same time, the energy efficiency of vehicles on the road is expected to improve 42% by 2040, led by increased efficiency of vehicles powered by gasoline, natural gas, and propane. This increased efficiency may lead to an overall 8% decline in liquid fuel consumption by 2040, with a 24% decrease in gasoline consumption that will be partially offset by a 26% increase in diesel fuel consumption and a 2,210% increase in consumption of E85, according to the study.
The report proejcts that non-liquid fuel alternatives—natural gas, propane, electricity and hydrogen—will increase their total contribution to light-duty vehicle energy consumption by 125%. See the NACS news release.